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taryneast comments on How not to move the goalposts - Less Wrong
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Ok, but I had the sense that, one you've already hired, based on skill, learning the colour will no longer give you any help in determining the skills of the people you have already hired... but will only give an indication of what percentage of each colour in the general population has the level of skill you hired-for.
Instead of thinking "I perfectly measured his skill level; it's 14", think "I obtained X bits of evidence that his skill is between 13 and 15".
Um - I'm not sure how this relates to what I said... can you please expand/clarify? :)
What I mean is: once you learn the colour, you can reason backwards that "oh, given we have X people with a skill roughly between 13 and 15... 90% of them are blue... this must imply that in the general population, blue weasels are more likely than red weasels to score roughly between 13 and 15 on skill tests at a ratio of roughly 9 to 1"
I don't know that you can prove much else base don just that data alone.