XiXiDu comments on Survey: Risks from AI - Less Wrong

9 Post author: XiXiDu 13 June 2011 01:05PM

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Comment author: XiXiDu 13 June 2011 02:21:22PM 0 points [-]
  1. 2030/2060/2100
  2. 10%/0.5%
  3. 0.01%/0.1%/20%
  4. little more
  5. don't know
  6. Invention of an adaptable algorithm capable of making novel and valuable discoveries in science and mathematics given limited resources.
Comment author: XiXiDu 13 June 2011 02:37:00PM *  3 points [-]

Some annotations:

2.) I assign a lower probability to an extremely negative outcome because I believe it to be more likely that we will just die rather than survive and suffer. And in the case that someone only gets their AI partly right, I don't think it will be extremely negative. All in all, an extremely negative outcome seems rather unlikely. But negative (we're all dead), is already pretty negative.

4.) I believe that the SIAI currently only needs a little more support because they haven't said what they would do with a lot more support (money...) right now. I also believe we need a partly empirical approach, as suggested by Ben Goertzel, to learn more about the nature of intelligence.

5.) I don't have the education and time to research how likely other existential risks are, compared to risks from AI.

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