That leads to all kind of crazy seeming stuff.

If it does, something almost definitely went wrong. Biases crept in somewhere between the risk assessment, the outside view correction process, the policy-proposing process, the policy-analyzing process, the policy outside view correction process, the ethical injunction check, and the "(anonymously) ask a few smart people whether some part of this is crazy" step. I'm not just adding unnatural steps; each of those should be separate, and each of those is a place where error can throw everything off. Overconfidence plus conjunction fallacy equals crazy seeming stuff. And this coming from the guy who is all about taking ideas seriously.