Comment on When is further research needed?

Fri, 17 Jun 2011 16:57:26 GMT

No, that isn't what taw is saying. The point is that having more information and being known to have it can be extremely bad for you. This is not a counterexample to the theorem, which considers two scenarios whose only difference is in how much you know, but in real-life applications that's very frequently not the case.

I don't think taw's blackmail example is quite right as it stands, but here's a slight variant that is. A Simple Blackmailer will publish the pictures if you don't give him the money. Obviously if there is such a person, and if there are no further future consequences, and if you prefer losing the money to losing your reputation, it is better for you to know about the blackmailer so you can give him the money. But now consider a Clever Blackmailer, who will publish the pictures if you don't give him the money and if he thinks you might give him the money if he doesn't. If there's a Clever Blackmailer and you don't know it (and he knows you don't know it) then he won't bother publishing because the threat has no force for you -- since you don't even know there is one. But if you learn of his existence and he knows this then he will publish the pictures unless you give him the money, so you have to give him the money. So, in this situation, you lose by discovering his existence. But only because he knows that you've discovered it.

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