AlephNeil comments on When is further research needed? - Less Wrong

0 Post author: RichardKennaway 17 June 2011 03:01PM

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Comment author: AlephNeil 18 June 2011 08:26:45AM 1 point [-]

Or in other words, the expectation of a max of some random variables is always greater or equal to the max of the expectations.

You could call this 'standard knowledge' but it's not the kind of thing one bothers to commit to memory. Rather, one immediately perceives it as true.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 19 June 2011 09:36:14PM 1 point [-]

Many things are obvious when they have been pointed out.

Comment author: PhilGoetz 18 June 2011 09:28:23PM 0 points [-]

Some people are criticizing this for being obviously true; others are criticizing it for being false.

A particular agent can have wrong information, and make a poor decision as a result of combining the wrong information with the new information. Since we're assuming that the additional information is correct, I think it's reasonable to also stipulate that all previous information is correct.

Also, you need to state the English interpretation in terms of expected value, not as "More information is never a bad thing".

Comment author: AlephNeil 19 June 2011 05:22:42AM *  5 points [-]

The mathematical result is trivial, but its interpretation as the practical advice "obtaining further information is always good" is problematic, for the reason taw points out.

A particular agent can have wrong information, and make a poor decision as a result of combining the wrong information with the new information. Since we're assuming that the additional information is correct, I think it's reasonable to also stipulate that all previous information is correct.

Actually, I thought of that objection myself, but decided against writing it down. First of all, it's not quite right to refer to past information as 'right' or 'wrong' because information doesn't arrive in the form of propositions-whose-truth-is-assumed, but in the form of sense data.* It's better to talk about 'misleading information' rather than 'wrong information'. When adversary A tells you P, which is a lie, your information is not P but "A told me P". (Actually, it's not even that, but you get the idea.) If you don't know A is an adversary then "A told me P" is misleading, but not wrong.

Now, suppose the agent's prior has got to where it is due to the arrival of misleading information. Then relative to that prior, the agent still increases its expected utility whenever it acquires new data (ignoring taw's objection).

(On the other hand, if we're measuring expectations wrt the knowledge of some better informed agent then yes, acquiring information can decrease expected utility. This is for the same reason that, in a Gettier case, learning a new true and relevant fact (e.g. most nearby barn facades are fake) can cause you to abandon a true belief in favour of a false one.)

* Yes yes, I know statements like this are philosophically contentious, but within LW they're assumptions to work from rather than be debated.

Comment author: CuSithBell 18 June 2011 02:55:23PM 0 points [-]

That meets the criterion of "pithier", certainly.

Comment author: Will_Sawin 18 June 2011 02:17:35PM 0 points [-]

"one" is not general enough. Do you really think what you just said is true for all people?

Comment author: AlephNeil 18 June 2011 02:45:08PM *  0 points [-]

It's true for anyone who understands random variables and expectations. There's a one line proof, after all.