I will back up lukeprog here, things should get exciting soon if all goes well, and I really hope it does.
I will also point out that SingInst not reporting/knowing what SingInst does doesn't mean that SingInst doesn't do things -- though it does mean that they're somewhat bad at cataloging progress. (Though see the quarterly reports, et cetera; many SingInst-critics don't even read those for some reason.) Michael Anissimov is the media director and doesn't hang out with the Research Fellows often, Eliezer doesn't know much about anything anyone else is doing (by his choice, I think), and Michael Vassar is busy all the time with important things. Anna Salamon does a lot of visible work with Carl Shulman, Steve Rayhawk doesn't do much visible work (though SIAI should be announcing one of his recent accomplishments soon I think). Steve does a fair bit of invisible work that I'm pretty sure most of SIAI mostly doesn't even know about (though he'd probably be quick to dismiss my promotion of his efforts as misguided or exaggerated). Jasen Murray is the organizational wizard running the rationality training stuff, Louie Helm just got back into town and is working on the exciting stuff lukeprog mentioned, and lukeprog himself is being insanely productive like usual. (Luke, are you officially employed/contracted by SIAI?) People loosely associated with SingInst are also doing interesting things, often with the help of SingInst researchers.
I'll give $500 to SIAI now if you can put a date on this 'exciting things' prediction. It doesn't have to be exact, but accurate to within a few weeks. $500 more on delivery of said excitement within said time window.
Also, I too would like to know where these quarterlies are stored.
One of the reasons that I am skeptical of contributing money to the SIAI is that I simply don't know what they would do with more money. The SIAI currently seems to be viable. Another reason is that I believe that an empirical approach is required, that we need to learn more about the nature of intelligence before we can even attempt to solve something like friendly AI.
I bring this up because I just came across an old post (2007) on the SIAI blog:
Some questions:
I also have some questions regarding the hiring of experts. Is there a way to figure out what exactly the current crew is working on in terms of friendly AI research? Peter de Blanc seems to be the only person who has done some actual work related to artificial intelligence.
I am aware that preparatory groundwork has to be done and capital has to be raised. But why is there no timeline? Why is there no progress report? What is missing for the SIAI to actually start working on friendly AI? The Singularity Institute is 10 years old, what is planned for the decade ahead?