All in all the "beliefs paying rent" is not about making big predictions in an environment where you are prohibitively uncertain (re: No one Knows what Science Doesn't Know) but rather that you should not ever believe anything because it is interesting. The beliefs that pay rent are ones such as "things fall down when dropped," which are readily testable and constrain your anticipation accordingly: "i do not expect anything to fall upwards." (helium balloons are a notable exception, but for that look at Leaky Generalizations) The ones that don't pay rent are ones such as "humans have epiphenomenal inner listeners," as it completely fail to constrain what you anticipate to experience.
Basically this: "Eliezer Yudkowsky writes and pretends he's an AI researcher but probably hasn't written so much as an Eliza bot."
While the Eliezer S. Yudkowsky site has lots of divulgation articles and his work on rationality is of indisputable value, I find myself at a loss when I want to respond to this. Which frustrates me very much.
So, to avoid this sort of situation in the future, I have to ask: What did the man, Eliezer S. Yudkowsky, actually accomplish in his own field?
Please don't downvote the hell out of me, I'm just trying to create a future reference for this sort of annoyance.