timtyler comments on Observed Pascal's Mugging - Less Wrong

25 [deleted] 28 June 2011 03:53PM

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Comment author: timtyler 28 June 2011 10:11:35PM *  -2 points [-]

But this is not the case for the lottery. The payoff and its probability are known, and the expected gain is much less than the cost.

The expected gain is less than the cost.for the mugging as well - otherwise, it is not a mugging, but an invitation to make a wise investment. As for the probability of the lottery payout being known - doesn't that depend on which lottery, and which punter - we are talking about?