timtyler comments on Observed Pascal's Mugging - Less Wrong

25 [deleted] 28 June 2011 03:53PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (61)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: timtyler 29 June 2011 11:26:35AM *  0 points [-]

So, the idea is not that the organisation accompanies its requests for donations with a confession that it is just waving high utility in front of them in the hope of parting them from their money. That is hardly likely to be an effective fundraising strategy. Nobody ever suggested that in the first place. The idea is more that it uses promises of very high utility to compensate for a lack of concrete success probabilities - much like Pascal's mugger does.

If you are short of examples of them waving high utitily around, perhaps see:

How Much it Matters to Know What Matters: A Back of the Envelope Calculation