I started with random.org giving me a number, 1 or 0. I decided to guess "left" if random.org returned 1 and "right" if random.org returned 0. On this particular occasion, random.org returned 1 and my method was successful.
Without other examples of Holmesian reasoning, it is not immediately obvious to myself that Holmesian reasoning is more successful than coin-flipping, although it is probably more time-intensive.
In Sherlock Holmes fiction, we see that Holmes is capable of making correct inferences using insufficient information and long, tenuous chains of reasoning. I'm curious what would happen if we tried to apply this in real life. Here's a riddle containing insufficient information to come to the right answer with any certainty; will our Holmesian reasoning attempts be anything close to the "correct" answer, or will it be totally off?
Use your meta-riddle awareness: this isn't just a random event, but the sort of event that I would make into a riddle.
Here's the answer I had in mind, rot13'd.