mathemajician comments on Born rule or universal prior? - Less Wrong

7 Post author: cousin_it 29 June 2011 11:27PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (35)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: mathemajician 04 July 2011 10:43:20PM *  0 points [-]

It's not clear to me from this description whether the SI predictor is also conditioned. Anyway, if the universal prior is not conditioned, then the convergence is easy as the uniform distribution has very low complexity. If it is conditioned, then you will have no doubt observed many processes well modelled by a uniform distribution over your life -- flipping a coin is a good example. So the estimated probability of encountering a uniform distribution in a new situation won't be all that low.

Indeed, with so much data SI will have built a model of language, and how this maps to mathematics and distributions, and in particular there is a good chance it will have seen a description of quantum mechanics. So if it's also been provided with information that these will be quantum coin flips, it should predict basically perfectly, including modelling the probability that you're lying or have simply set up the experiment wrong.