I'm not sure if anyone has been following the appeal...
but I'm willing to bet up to several hundred dollars at even odds that Amanda Knox will be released on appeal.
At what odds?
Also, I'd guess that p(released on appeal) < p(innocent). Are you taking that into account?
Even odds. If you think I'm not sufficiently taking that into account, perhaps you should take the other side of the bet.
I'm not sure if anyone has been following the appeal...
but I'm willing to bet up to several hundred dollars at even odds that Amanda Knox will be released on appeal.