Making an Amanda Knox prediction market

Kevin

I'm not sure if anyone has been following the appeal...

but I'm willing to bet up to several hundred dollars at even odds that Amanda Knox will be released on appeal.

I'm not sure if anyone has been following the appeal...

but I'm willing to bet up to several hundred dollars at even odds that Amanda Knox will be released on appeal.

I'm not sure if anyone has been following the appeal...

I have. .:-)

I have updated my probability of a successful appeal to 80% in light of the DNA report (which I have a copy of and have been helping to translate). So, numerically, you should be wanting to make a bet with me in the other direction (unless you've updated significantly on what I just said).

By the way, since there is a lot of interest in Asperger's here, I'll point out this article from Time:

http://healthland.time.com/2011/06/30/could-amanda-knox-have-an-autism-spectrum-disorder/

What do folks think? She is a fan of HPMoR, after all! (Normally I'd wring my hands about overdiagnosis of Asperger's and knee-jerk association of certain personality traits with the syndrome, but...is it time for me to just give in?)

Do you and Rolf want to have that debate now? Might be fun, especially since your side of the debate is so easy...

3Kevin15y

Yes, I'd take the 20% side of the bet. Shall we? And I agree with the autism likelihood, and think the Italian inquisitor confused autism for sociopathy. I read the Rolling Stone article referenced in the Time blog and thought of it as clear evidence of autistic behavior before reading the Time article. http://www.rollingstone.com/culture/news/the-neverending-nightmare-of-amanda-knox-20110627?print=true