So, komponisto, Kevin, Pavitra, or anyone else, any general thoughts on how to calculate p(K | guilt) or p(K | innocence)?

Elsewhere, I described my reasoning on p(K | innocence) as follows:

Start, per Ghirga, with approximately 33% probability, or 1:2 odds. Then update on the fact that Amanda and Raffaele are factually innocent; this takes me upward to about the level of total ignorance, 50%, or 1:1 odds. By Bayes' theorem this implies that I must think that innocence is twice as likely in the case of acquittal as in the case of conviction. I think t