Giles comments on People neglect small probability events - Less Wrong

11 Post author: XiXiDu 02 July 2011 10:54AM

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Comment author: Giles 02 July 2011 10:31:02PM 0 points [-]

2) Just to amplify point 1) a bit: you shouldn’t always maximize expected utility if you only live once.

I assume this is another way of saying that he rejects the Von Neumann-Morgenstern axioms?

Comment author: jsteinhardt 02 July 2011 11:00:11PM 0 points [-]

No, his definition of utility is different from yours. Or rather, he is not using "utility" in any technical sense, just as an abstracted "amount of goodness". I am not sure of this, since I cannot read John Baez's mind, but my experience talking to people who are not regulars on LW is that this is what is generally meant when people say the word utility.

Comment author: torekp 05 July 2011 12:53:00AM 0 points [-]

His definition of utility may well be different, as you say. But denial of the vN-M axioms is implied, even if not equivalent.

Comment author: jsteinhardt 05 July 2011 07:15:02PM 0 points [-]

Can you elaborate? I don't understand in what sense it is implied.

Comment author: torekp 06 July 2011 02:22:51AM 1 point [-]

Hmm. On further reflection, I now think I was wrong. Maybe Baez translates "utility" as something like "disability-adjusted life years saved." And then he has a nonlinear function from DALYs saved to utility-in-the-technical-sense. Voila, risk aversion (for gambles on DALYs) makes sense.

Comment author: jsteinhardt 06 July 2011 07:05:53PM 0 points [-]

This is roughly what I was thinking, though you have expressed it much more clearly than I did.