Manfred comments on People neglect small probability events - Less Wrong

11 Post author: XiXiDu 02 July 2011 10:54AM

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Comment author: Manfred 05 July 2011 05:46:58PM *  1 point [-]

Given a certain chunk of information, the evidence in it isn't subjective. Priors may be subjective, although there is a class of cases where they're objective too. "It is difficult to tell who is right" is an informative statement about the human decision process, but not really informative about probability.

Comment author: timtyler 05 July 2011 08:47:17PM 0 points [-]

Given a certain chunk of information, the evidence in it isn't subjective. Priors may be subjective, although there is a class of cases where they're objective too.

Well, two agents with the same priors can easily come to different conclusions as a result of observing the same evidence. Different cognitive limitations can result in that happening.