gwern comments on Rationality Quotes July 2011 - Less Wrong
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I would want to be clear about this: the Atreides may have a net advantage over the Harkonnen, but they are not 'strictly superior' to the Harkonnen in every respect. As the Baron explains in the full passage, the Atreides wagered on a strategy ('rabbits') that failed against the enemies they knew were gunning for them ('bees'), so at the very least, their planning was not so hot.
Aspects which didn't matter until much later if you count Paul's resurgence, and which resurgence involved some pretty exotic factors I can't really blame the Harkonnens for missing.
Being trained, perhaps. Remember that the Baron's twisted mentats were periodically killed off. The Terrible Duo aside, I don't think we know how long Piter was at the job - it is entirely possible he had been kept completely busy calculating out the loss of Arrakis and the subsequent invasion. Certainly Hawat (Piter's non-twisted counterpart) was kept full occupied by his counter-plotting.
There's a passage where the Baron has pretty clearly been handed the Idiot Ball by Herbert, because he gets direct evidence that the Fremen are superior to the Sardaukar and dismisses it for specious reasons.
There's also some question in my mind how the Baron missed the reason the Emperor was helping him (Leto had trained a fighting force getting close in strength to the Sardaukar).
Calling it an Idiot Ball is a little harsh. If his prior was that Fremen were pretty worthless, and then a unit of supposed Fremen - who conveniently have Hawat among them - defeat Sardaukar, it's perhaps easier to explain it by supposing Atreides soldiers wearing Fremen clothes (in fact some of them were just that, since the Atreides group under Hawat did join these Fremen) than to suddenly decide the natives were equal to the Imperium's most elite fighters. Especially since the Baron had just done something similar, letting Sardaukar fight in Harkonnen uniforms.
Rereading that passage, I was also discounting that Vladimir was getting this info from Rabban, who he doesn't have strong reason to believe (although he did ask some penetrating questions). So it may be a little harsh.
Well, they could have mattered, if the Atreides had more time to implement their plan. I'm not sure what point you're arguing against there - I'm not saying they had a better grasp of reality than the Harkonnens in all respects or even on average.
That is a very strange idea; where does it come from? I'd have said the moral superiority of Atreides over Harkonnens is overwhelmingly obvious, including to in-universe third party characters (e.g. Count and Lady Fenring).
Herbert, as I said. See: