MarkusRamikin comments on Rationality Quotes July 2011 - Less Wrong
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Calling it an Idiot Ball is a little harsh. If his prior was that Fremen were pretty worthless, and then a unit of supposed Fremen - who conveniently have Hawat among them - defeat Sardaukar, it's perhaps easier to explain it by supposing Atreides soldiers wearing Fremen clothes (in fact some of them were just that, since the Atreides group under Hawat did join these Fremen) than to suddenly decide the natives were equal to the Imperium's most elite fighters. Especially since the Baron had just done something similar, letting Sardaukar fight in Harkonnen uniforms.
Rereading that passage, I was also discounting that Vladimir was getting this info from Rabban, who he doesn't have strong reason to believe (although he did ask some penetrating questions). So it may be a little harsh.