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XiXiDu comments on Hanson Debating Yudkowsky, Jun 2011 - Less Wrong
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In both of these debates, the change in "margin of victory" between people was smaller than the number of people who voted the first time but not the second. In the debate with Yudkowsky, Hanson's margin of victory went from -5 to 1, and 20 voters dropped out. In the debate with Caplan the margin went from 32 to 5--actually getting smaller--and 17 voters dropped out. I'm not sure if we can even determine a "winner" in terms of audience popularity, with that many disappearing votes. Is it normal in debates for large numbers of audience members to not vote at the end?
vs Caplan, the margin went from -32 to -5, with 7 people dropping out. Do you have some other source of numbers?
If people leave early, that is an extra source of noise, but probably unbiased. If a non-voter is expressing uncertainty, that is a useful source of information, although it would be better to know how many abstain and better if they explicitly expressed uncertainty. I would expect people to be more bashful before the debate than after and am surprised that the number of votes went down.
ETA: the recording of the Eliezer-Hanson debate says that this was an increase in number of undecided people.
Oops, I typed 12 when I meant 32. But I think it's positive 32 and 5, not negative, because he says he won.
Try reading it again for the signs. Moreover, when he says that contrarian positions win, he means that they shift people towards them, not that they win outright. This is probably because most people have never heard actual arguments for the contrarian position.