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XiXiDu comments on Hanson Debating Yudkowsky, Jun 2011 - Less Wrong
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vs Caplan, the margin went from -32 to -5, with 7 people dropping out. Do you have some other source of numbers?
If people leave early, that is an extra source of noise, but probably unbiased. If a non-voter is expressing uncertainty, that is a useful source of information, although it would be better to know how many abstain and better if they explicitly expressed uncertainty. I would expect people to be more bashful before the debate than after and am surprised that the number of votes went down.
ETA: the recording of the Eliezer-Hanson debate says that this was an increase in number of undecided people.
Oops, I typed 12 when I meant 32. But I think it's positive 32 and 5, not negative, because he says he won.
Try reading it again for the signs. Moreover, when he says that contrarian positions win, he means that they shift people towards them, not that they win outright. This is probably because most people have never heard actual arguments for the contrarian position.