I did say the "checkmate" methods were the most legitimate. This is "Hoy To Be Always Right", not "How To Always Be A Demagogical Sophist": the parts that involve manipulating the opponent without actually resorting to lies and fallacies are the most satisfying, since those are the parts where it's more clearly "intellect vs intellect", and the parts where you actually know yourself to be right. A clean fight is a good fight. As for Black Swans, they are obviously subjective in that they depend on how well-informed the receiving party is. Usually we talk about Black Swans when it's the enitre scientific community that's taken aback by a paradigm breaker.