Gut feeling, no. I can give a reason for this: the Simulation Argument gives two other options, and I think each of the most credible assumptions that would reduce the likelihood of one No-Sim option would increase that of the other. But I've never devoted that much thought to it.
(I give fairly strong credence to the claim that reality acts more like a Turing machine than like any other model we could use. But I think this needs a different name, to discourage us from explaining the 'Turing machine' by one of our other 'models'.)
My father, who is home recovering from surgery, emailed the following web page to me and a few other members of my family, and expressed interest in reading interesting responses.
Any thoughts?