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AlexMennen comments on Casey Anthony - analyzing evidence using Bayes - Less Wrong
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Sounds like Casey is overwhelmingly likely to be guilty. It also sounds plausible, but unlikely (and maybe more evidence makes it less likely; this post is all I've read on the matter), than Cindy killed Cayley.
Let me note that most (all?) of this evidence is contested by the defense. Juror #3 Jennifer Ford, in her post-verdict interview with ABC news, said that she didn't believe the evidence based on chloroform.
The stench similarly was also contested.
I personally think that Case Anthony at least caused the death of Cayley that involved criminal elements. So, I am biased - I've made up my mind. I could change it if someone could explain all of the above in a more plausible way.
Judging by the public uproar, I guess that most people think she is guilty. Even the jurors themselves said that they 'were sick to their stomachs' in delivering the verdict, which is a strange display of human psychology.
If you (or anyone else) are still interested, I recommend this article . I think I'm pretty close to the position the author articulates.