Thanks for posting this.

I don't know about Bayes but I think Occam's razor (simplest explanation for the data) indicates that most likely she's guilty of murder. Here are the relevant events (as evidence) that I'm thinking about:

• Casey Anthony borrowed a shovel from her neighbor on June 18th 2008. Cayley Anthony was last seen alive on June 15th 2008.

• There were search queries like chloroform, 'how to break a neck' (and others) found on Casey Anthony's computer - through reconstructed Firefox cache browser. The computer files were deleted to hide the data, so special software was used to reconstruct the data.

• There was a month between the last time Cayley Anthony was seen alive and the time she was reported as missing. When she was reported as missing, it was the grandmother, Casey Anthony's mother Cindy Anthony, who reported it.

• During that month, Casey Anthony was seen as partying and entering 'hot-body' contests.
• In Cindy Anthony's call to 911, she describes the stench in Casey Anthony's car as a foul smell 'as if someone died in there'.
• The body was found only a quarter a mile away from the house where here parents and Casey Anthony live.
• There was a duct tape with the skeletal remains of the body. Same type of duct tape was also found in Anthony household.

I could go on and on and on...

The jurors acquitted Casey Anthony on the basis that there was no connection between her and the dead body of the child and that prosecutors weren't able to prove a link between her and the dead body of the child.

My reaction is that if you look at all the circumstantial evidence, the simplest explanation that fits all the data is that she probably killed her child. Yes, you can have someone just curious about chloroform searching google. Yes, it may also have been food rotting in the car. Yes, Casey Anthony may have borrowed the shovel for gardening - but if you string together all these explanations, the final conjunction of all of them just becomes a lot less probable.