Cyan comments on Casey Anthony - analyzing evidence using Bayes - Less Wrong

2 Post author: Zachary_Kurtz 07 July 2011 05:19PM

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Comment author: Cyan 08 July 2011 03:38:21AM 2 points [-]

Shouldn't there be some accounting of the standard deviation of your estimate of your priors? If I have a prior that I've reached by amounting ten bits of evidence, that is quite different from a prior that I've reached by amounting one bit of evidence. I don't see how a traditionally Bayesian approach takes this into account.

Check out Metauncertainty. The post Joys of Conjugate Priors gives a specific example.

Comment author: komponisto 08 July 2011 06:38:40PM 2 points [-]

Check out Metauncertainty.

That post should be linked to more often. It is fundamental for discussions of calibration. It should have been promoted, frankly.

Comment author: RobertLumley 08 July 2011 01:02:45PM 1 point [-]

Thanks, I'll read those when I get a chance.