komponisto comments on Casey Anthony - analyzing evidence using Bayes - Less Wrong

2 Post author: Zachary_Kurtz 07 July 2011 05:19PM

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Comment author: komponisto 08 July 2011 05:05:48AM 1 point [-]

The only consideration I can think of even close to the insightfulness of komponisto's analysis of how the coverup is the only hard question in the Knox case

Naturally, I greatly appreciate the compliment and the link. (Thanks!) However, I have to point out that this isn't a correct summary of that post. A correct summary would be: "the burden of proof for demostrating a coverup by Knox and Sollecito is as high as for demonstrating their guilt of murder". I don't claim that the question of whether there was a coverup is particularly hard to resolve (to the contrary, the aforementioned claim implies strongly that there almost certainly wasn't a coverup), and nor do I compare its difficulty with other aspects of the case.

ask how often mothers cover up a murder of their children they were not culpable in

As I understand it, the principal defense theory in the Anthony case is that it wasn't a homicide at all, but an accident that was covered up.

Comment author: gwern 08 July 2011 11:15:21AM 1 point [-]

The line I was thinking of was the one about how hard work has to be done somewhere, and if the coverup implied guilt, then the work had to be done on the coverup. But OK, thanks for the correction.