AnlamK comments on Casey Anthony - analyzing evidence using Bayes - Less Wrong
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As well, I don't see any obvious way to attack it with Bayesian tools. (As Hamming reminds us in "You and Your Research"*, what makes a problem important is not what consequences solving it would have (like FTL or antigravity) but whether you have any productive lines of attack on it. What questions have the highest marginal return?)
The only consideration I can think of even close to the insightfulness of komponisto's analysis of how the coverup is the only hard question in the Knox case would be to ask how often mothers cover up a murder of their children they were not culpable in. And when you ask it like that, then Anthony looks highly likely to be guilty.
* Serendipitously, I just learned there's apparently an expanded book form available online
This morning I read the following. I still don't have statistics on this but this should be relevant:
That doesn't really tell us much - lying about accidents is rare, OK. Parents murdering their children, accidentally or deliberately, are also pretty rare. It's the ratio of rarity which tells us which to prefer in lieu of any other evidence - which is rarer?