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Jonathan_Graehl comments on Time and Effort Discounting - Less Wrong
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Do any of the studies on hyperbolic discounting attempt to show that it is not just a consequence of combining uncertainty with something like a standard exponential discounting function? That's always seemed the most plausible explanation of hyperbolic discounting to me and it meshes with what seems to be going on when I introspect on these kinds of choices.
Most of the discussions of hyperbolic discounting I see don't even consider how increasing uncertainty for more distant rewards should factor into preferences. Ignoring uncertainty seems like it would be a sub-optimal strategy for agents making decisions in the real world.
Yes. Specifically, I'm always struck by the idea that someone offering me $100 right now, before I let them out of my sight, is more likely to deliver. If it were between me leaving and them mailing (or wiring) $100 later that day (or so they say) vs. $150 next week, clearly I'll take the $150.
But Yvain talks about the reward at time t vs the larger one at time t+1 becoming more tempting only as you get sufficiently close to t - so, if this has been measured in real people, some researchers must have avoided the obvious "we'll get back to you" credibility problem (I didn't follow cites looking for details, however).