You're using a Roko algorithm! Well, you might be, anyway. Specifically, trying to resolve troubling internal tension by drumming up social drama in the hopes that some decisive external event will knock you into stability.
I am really really impressed. That is basically exactly right.
However you don't seem to be going out of your way to appear discreditable like he did...
Well, I managed to get out of Jehovah's Witnesses on my own. People who care strongly about their reputation within a community often fail that hurdle. Not that I want to draw any comparisons, I just want to highlight my personality. I never cared much about my social reputation, as long as it isn't obviously instrumental.
...maybe because you don't yet identify with the "x-rationalist" memeplex to as great an extent as Roko.
I especially don't identify with the utility monsters (i.e. people who call everything a bias and want to act like fictitious superintelligences). But I am generally interested to learn.
...the message you might be trying to send after it's made explicit and reflected upon for a bit might be something like the following...
I endorse everything you wrote there. I don't know how to deal with a certain topic I can't talk about. I can't ask anybody outside of this community either. Those who I asked just said its complete craziness.
On one side there is LW and then there is everyone else. Both sides call each other idiots. Those outside of LW just don't seem knowledgeable or smart enough to tell me what to do, those insight of LW seem too crazy and are hold captive by a reputation system. I could try to figure it all out on my own, but the topic and the whole existential risk business is too distracting to allow me to devote my time to educate myself sufficiently.
Sure, I could just trust Eliezer based on his reputation. Maybe a perfect Bayesian agent would do that, I have no idea. But I don't have enough trust in, and knowledge of the very methods that allow you to conclude that assertions by Eliezer are very likely to be true. Should I really not be reading a book like 'Good and Real' because it talks about something that I shouldn't even think about? I can't swallow that pill. Where do I draw the line? And how do I even avoid a topic that I am unable to pinpoint? I could "just" calculate the expected utility of thinking about the topic in and of itself and the utility of the consequences according to Eliezer. But as I wrote, I don't trust those methods. The utility of some logical implications of someones vague assertions seem overly insufficient to take into account at all. Such thinking leads to Pascal's Mugging scenarios and I am not willing to take that route yet. But at the same time all this is sufficiently distracting and disturbing that I can't just ignore it either.
You people drive me crazy. A year of worries, do you think a few downvotes can make me shut up about that?
...without any tools to point out how insane everyone in the world is being...
I don't really think anyone here is insane, just overcredulous. The problem is that your memes are too damn efficient at making one distrust one's own intuition.
See, back when I was a Jehovah's Witness I was told that I have to do everything to make people aware of "the Truth" to save as many people as possible and in order to join the paradise myself. I was told that the current time doesn't count, there will be infinitely more fun in future. I was also told not to read and think about certain topics because they will make me lose the paradise.
I thought I left all that behind, just to learn that there are atheists who believe exactly the same just using different labels. Even the "you have to believe" part is back in the form of "making decisions under uncertainty", "uncertainty" that is as close to a "belief" that it doesn't make much of a difference...
Maybe I'm partially projecting. I'm pretty sure I'm ranting at least.
No, I am generally impressed by the level of insight regarding my personal motives. For how long have you thought about this? Or is it that obvious?
Good rationalists shouldn't read Good and Real? Why not? Where is this argued?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/2011/jul/08/change-your-life-ugh-fields