Raw_Power comments on Discussion: Ideas for a Lesswrongian anticipation Sci-Fi set in 2060 - Less Wrong
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Well, computers were anticipated in 1671, and
Jules Verne didn't anticipate Submarines: there were already quite a few of those back then although none as huge and NERV-Titanic (relative to the era) as the Nautilus.
But, IMHO, the ultimate example is:
So, the ultimate badass achievement for science-fiction writers isn't to just anticipate stuff, it's to have their anticipation cause the changes and inventions in the first place, as a self-fulfilling prophecy.
So, no, I'm not too worried about making stuff up, cuz that stuff might actually end up being made when it otherwise wouldn't be. We're free-roaming in Idea Space, man, let's just enjoy the ride and try to come up with something fun as well as pedagogic. Plus, the fun thing about Less Wrong is that our focus on human biases and systematic errors gives us foot to write plots that aren't all that sensitive to Zeerust, relying on deeply-seated human idiosyncrasies instead. Going that route is also the easiest way to appeal to the mainstream and to get the high-status "Literature" qualifier, which is always good publicity AND it would allow us to slip our Author Tract in a fairly honest and straightforward way without making it a heavy handed filibuster...
This misses the main issue: while some writers did correctly anticipate some technologies, as a whole the general accuracy of predictions was very weak. Even those who did make correct predictions they were often buried in a host of other predictions. For example, some of Arthur C. Clarke's short stories have an internet like thing, but the vast majority do not. Similarly, Gibson's cyberspace only has a rough similarity to the internet as we know it. So claiming that these were anticipated seems to be almost a file drawer effect.