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DanielLC comments on Secrets of the eliminati - Less Wrong
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What I've heard is that, for an intelligent entity, it's easier to predict what will happen based on their goals rather than what they do.
For example, with the connect four game, if you manage to figure out that they always seem to get four in a row, and you never do when you play against them, before you can figure out what their strategy is, you know their goal.
Although you might have just identified an instrumental subgoal.