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multifoliaterose comments on Optimal Philanthropy for Human Beings - Less Wrong
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Just weighing in here:
SIAI is an organization built around a particular set of theories about AI -- theories not all AI researchers share. If SIAI's theories are right, they are the most important organization in the world. If they're wrong, they're unimportant.
The field of AI has been littered with (metaphorical) corpses since the 1960's. If an AI researcher tells you any theory, you have a very, very strong prior for believing it is false -- especially if it concerns "general" intelligence or "human-level" intelligence. So, Eliezer is probably wrong just like everyone else. That's not a particular criticism of him; it still puts him in august company.
So my particular position is that I'm not giving to SIAI until I'm worth enough financially that I can ask a few hours of Eliezer's time, and get a better idea of whether the theories are correct.
What I don't like is the suggestion I get from your posts that somehow SIAI is the work of self-deluded charlatans. I know what charlatanism sounds like -- I've had dear friends get halo effects around their pet ideas. I know what it sounds like when someone is just trying to get me to support the team and is playing fast and loose with the facts. And at least some of the SIAI people don't do that at ALL. You have to admire the honesty, even if you're skeptical (as I am) that research can succeed in such isolation from mainstream science. Eliezer is a good person. This is an honest and thoughtful attempt to do what he says he wants to do -- I am very, very confident of that.
Offer these people the respect (or charity, if you will) of judging their ideas on the merits -- or, if you don't have time to look into the ideas, mark that as ignorance on your part. You seem to be saying "They must be wrong because they're weird." The thing is, they're working in a field where even the experts are a little weird, and where even the mainstream academics have been wrong about a lot. You've got to revise your "Don't believe weirdos" prediction down a little bit. The more I learn about the world, the more I realize that the non-weirdos don't have it all sewn up.
This strikes me as a false dichotomy. It seems unlikely that the theories are all right or all wrong. Also, most important in the world vs. unimportant by what metric? They could be wrong about some crucial things, be unlikely to some around to more accurate views but carry high utilitarian expected value on the possibility that they do.
I agree that taw has been unfairly critical of SIAI and that SIAI people may well be closer to the mark than mainstream AGI theorists (in fact I think this more likely than not).
The main claim that needs to be evaluated is "AI is an existential risk," and the various hypotheses that would imply that it is.
If the kind of AI that poses existential risk is vanishingly unlikely to be invented (which is what I tend to believe, but I'm not super-confident) then SIAI is working to no real purpose, and has about the same usefulness as a basic research organization that isn't making much progress. Pretty low priority.
Are you considering other effects SIAI might have, besides those directly related to its primary purpose?
In my opinion, Eliezer's rationality outreach efforts alone are enough to justify its existence. (And I'm not sure they would be as effective without the motivation of this "secret agenda".)