Oscar_Cunningham comments on Looking for proof of conditional probability - Less Wrong
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Short answer: The Kolmogorov axioms are just mathematical. They have nothing inherently to do with the real world. P(A|B)=P(A∩B)/P(B) is the definition of P(A|B). There is a compelling argument that the beliefs of a rational agent should obey the Kolmogorov axioms, with P(A|B) corresponding to the degree of belief in A when B is known.
Long answer: I have a sequence of posts coming up.
Are you thinking of this one, or something else?
I was thinking of the Dutch book argument others have mentioned. But I think you may have misunderstood my point.The original poster has summed up what I wanted to say better than I could:
I agree with the first paragraph but the second seems confused. We want to show that P(A|B) defined as P(A∩B)/P(B) tells us how much weight to assign A given B. DanielLC seems to be looking for an a priori mathematical proof of this, but this is futile. We're trying to show that there is a correspondence between the laws of probability and something in the real world (the optimal beliefs of agents) , so we have to mention properties of the real world in our arguments.