Desrtopa comments on [LINK] Scientists use Bayesian reasoning to update the drake equation for the existence of ET's - Less Wrong
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Comments (7)
The premise that we do not have the information to conclude that abiogenesis on planets similar to our own is common is correct, but I'm not sure that this is particularly changing much about scientists' beliefs in the field. If my experience is representative, this seems more like an articulation of what most scientists in the field already believe.
The linked synopsis seems to significantly overstate the case the paper is making though. Compare
To
Also, note that the linked synopsis claims that the Drake Equation drives an overly optimistic value of the likelihood of extraterrestrial life, citing the aforementioned paper, whereas the paper itself only attempts to establish the possibility of fℓ (the probability of life arising on a planet capable of supporting it) being low, making no criticism of the equation itself.
Thanks for clearing that up