komponisto comments on On the unpopularity of cryonics: life sucks, but at least then you die - Less Wrong

72 Post author: gwern 29 July 2011 09:06PM

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Comment author: komponisto 31 July 2011 04:31:38PM 8 points [-]

Remember the fraction of people that take $500 for certain over a 15% chance of $1 million?

Wow. I don't think I'd heard that one.

Comment author: Tesseract 31 July 2011 07:49:54PM 11 points [-]

I was very surprised to see that too, to the point of questioning whether the result was real, but apparently it is. (The particular result is on page 10 — and possibly elsewhere, I haven't read it through yet.)

Comment author: roystgnr 06 August 2011 03:17:39PM 5 points [-]

Let's be fair: that study was measuring the fraction of people that say they'd take an imaginary $500 over an imaginary 15% chance at an imaginary $1 million.

I doubt that most respondents were deliberately messing with the survey results, but I do think that people may use different decision-making resources for amusing hypotheticals vs. for the real world. E.g. the percentage of people getting the Wason Selection Task correct can jump from under 10% to over 70% when you change the task context from more abstract to more concrete. I suspect that for lots of people imaginary money counts as too abstract.

Comment author: HughRistik 31 July 2011 11:48:13PM 5 points [-]

I guess some folks could really use $500.

Comment author: gwern 01 August 2011 01:08:16AM 9 points [-]

Assuming you weren't joking, that doesn't seem likely. The PDF Tesseract linked is about surveying college students, primarily, from elite institutions like Harvard, MIT, Princeton, or CMU. They are people one would especially expect to be making the expected value calculation and going with that.

Comment author: HughRistik 01 August 2011 01:18:35AM 5 points [-]

In that case, let's say I was joking ;)