The magic bean scenario has a low prior, and you haven't provided any evidence, just a claim, so it's not really comparable.
Agreed, but I was arguing specifically against saturn's apparent claim that you should spend money on any process that promises to allow you to live forever, no matter how unlikely (assuming that you actually want to live forever, of course, which we do).
Cryonics is not easy to prove if it works because the level of technology we are at is not anywhere near the theoretical maximum where repairing the damage of cryopreservation is concerned.
Is there good evidence to believe that the damage of cryopreservation (as well as the damage due to the brain losing oxygenation while it's waiting to get cryopreserved) is actually reversible ? Furthermore, is it the case that preserving the physical structure of the brain is sufficient ? To use a crude analogy, if I were to unplug my computer from the wall socket at this very moment, the contents of this post that I am now typing would be lost forever, and no amount of future technology would bring them back -- despite the fact that the physical structure of my computer hardware will be perfectly preserved, and despite the fact that my computer will resume functioning normally after I plug it back in.
Now, you might argue rationally in favor of allocating funding towards cryobiology research instead of your own future arrangements
I think that the question of "how should you allocate your money given that you want to live forever" is rather more complex than that. Here are some possible choices:
These are just some possible answers to the question of how you should spend your money; I'm sure there are many others.
Yes there's pretty good evidence that the physical structure of the brain is sufficient for long-term memories. The hard drive of your computer would survive if you unplugged your computer. Also if you put the RAM chips of your computer in LN2 immediately after powering off, the data would be readable later (or so I've heard). If human personalities were stored as dynamic processes, that would be a strong argument against cryonics, however this is unlikely to be the case; if they were, we would expect that hypothermia causes amnesia.
The damage done by the ...
From Mike Darwn's Chronopause, an essay titled "Would You Like Another Plate of This?", discussing people's attitudes to life:
Conclusion, graphs, and references in article. As usual, I recommend reading Chronopause.com as Darwin has many good articles; to quickly link a few: