The topics of existential risk, AI, and other future technologies inherently require the use of very large numbers, far beyond any of those encountered when discussing normal, everyday risks and rewards.
Even if this is so, there is tons of evidence that humans suck at reasoning about such large numbers. If you want to make an extraordinary claim like the one you made above, then you need to put forth a large amount of evidence to support it. And on such a far-mode topic, the likelihood of your argument being correct decreases exponentially with the number of steps in the inferential chain.
I only skimmed through the video, but assuming that the estimates at 11:36 are what you're referring to, those numbers are both seemingly quite high and entirely unjusti...
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