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steven0461 comments on The $125,000 Summer Singularity Challenge - Less Wrong
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I haven't watched the presentation, but 8 lives corresponds to only a one in a billion chance of averting human extinction per donated dollar, which corresponds (neglecting donation matching and the diminishing marginal value of money) to roughly a 1 in 2000 chance of averting human extinction from a doubling of the organization's budget for a year. That doesn't sound obviously crazy to me, though it's more than I'd attribute to an organization just on the basis that it claimed to be reducing extinction risk.
For what it's worth, this is in line with my estimates, which are not just on the basis of claimed interest in x-risk reduction. I don't think that an order of magnitude or more less than this level of effectiveness could be the conclusion of a credible estimation procedure.