Good question. My intended meaning was the second of the meanings that you listed "the probability of a positive singularity is 0.1%-1% lower than the probability of a positive singularity given no nuclear war." Would be interested to hear any thoughts that you have about these things.
I can't think of a mechanism through which recovery would become long-term impossible, but maybe there is one. People taking fewer safety precautions in a destabilized society does sound plausible. There are probably a number of other, similarly important effects of nuclear war on existential risk to take into account. Different technologies (IA, uploading, AGI, Friendliness philosophy) have different motivations behind them that would probably be differently affected by a nuclear war. Memes would have more time to come closer to some sort of equilibrium i...
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