Bongo comments on The $125,000 Summer Singularity Challenge - Less Wrong

20 Post author: Kaj_Sotala 29 July 2011 09:02PM

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Comment author: Bongo 01 August 2011 10:43:11AM *  2 points [-]

If you already know your decision the value of the research is nil.

No because then if someone challenges your decision you can give them citations! And then you can carry out the decision without the risk of looking weird!

Comment author: MixedNuts 01 August 2011 10:54:47AM -1 points [-]

Citing evidence that didn't influence you before you wrote your bottom line is lying.

Comment author: Bongo 01 August 2011 11:45:24AM 2 points [-]

Added some exclamation marks to bring out the sarcasm.

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 01 August 2011 03:47:00PM 3 points [-]

So if:

  • Something causes me to believe in X
  • I post in public that I believe in X
  • I read up more on X and find even more reasons to believe in it
  • Somebody challenges my public post and I respond, citing both the old reason and the new ones

Then I'm lying? I don't think that's quite right.

Comment author: MixedNuts 01 August 2011 03:59:00PM 1 point [-]

Nah; if your credence in X went up when you read the new reasons, and more importantly if it would have gone down if the opposite of these reasons were true, it's kosher.

If someone challenges your post and you think "Crap, my case doesn't look impressive enough" and selectively search for citations, you're lying.

A grey area is when you believe X because you heard it somewhere but you don't remember where except that it sounded trustworthy. You can legitimately be pretty confident that X is true and that good sources exist, but you still have to learn a new fact before you can point to them. The reason this isn't an outright lie is that trust chains need occasional snapping. There's an odd and interesting effect - Alice distorts things just a tiny bit when she tells Bob, which basically doesn't affect anything, but Bob doesn't know exactly what the distortions where so the distorsions he adds when he tells Carol can be huge, though his beliefs are basically correct! (A big source is that uncertainty is hard to communicate, so wild guesses often turn into strong claims.)

Comment author: FAWS 01 August 2011 04:25:50PM 3 points [-]

If someone challenges your post and you think "Crap, my case doesn't look impressive enough" and selectively search for citations, you're lying.

"Selectively" is the keyword here. Searching for additional arguments for your position is legitimate if you would retract on discovering negative evidence IMO.

Comment author: MixedNuts 01 August 2011 04:42:00PM 0 points [-]

Yeah, but that's a weird thing to do. Why not give your current evidence, then do more research and come back to announce the results?

Comment author: wedrifid 01 August 2011 07:16:36PM *  2 points [-]

Citing evidence that didn't influence you before you wrote your bottom line is lying.

No. It just isn't. But adopting your ontology briefly I will assert that 'lying' is morally virtuous in all sorts of situations.

Comment author: wedrifid 01 August 2011 07:27:33PM 0 points [-]

No because then if someone challenges your decision you can give them citations! And then you can carry out the decision without the risk of looking weird!

A worthy endeavour!

Comment author: Normal_Anomaly 03 August 2011 04:30:46PM 0 points [-]

Are you being sarcastic here?

Comment author: wedrifid 04 August 2011 12:54:46AM 1 point [-]

No. Information really is useful for influencing others independently of its use for actually making decisions. It is only the decision making component that is useless after you have already made up your mind.

Comment author: Normal_Anomaly 04 August 2011 10:39:19AM 0 points [-]

Okay, thanks.