Morendil comments on [LINK] Get paid to train your rationality - Less Wrong

27 Post author: XFrequentist 03 August 2011 03:01PM

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Comment author: gwern 04 September 2011 05:37:13PM *  1 point [-]

Ah, that's what you meant by tags. Yes, that would be nice. On the other hand, I rather doubt that tags would instantly create massive demand for PB's services - other places like Intrade have well-categorized predictions/bets, and none of them have seen traffic explode the moment they implemented that feature.

If you really found tags all that valuable, you could start doing them inside comments. Go over the 969 upcoming predictions and add comments like 'tags: personal, exercise' or 'tags: America, politics'. Later, it'd be even easier to turn them into some real software-supported tags/categories, and in the meantime, you can query using Google. This wouldn't even take very long - at 30 predictions a day, which ought to take 10 minutes max, you'd be done in a month.

(I doubt you will adopt my suggestion and tag even 500 predictions (10%). This seems to be common to suggestions for PB: 'I'd use and really find PB useful if only it were executed better in this way', which of course never happens. It's starting to remind me of cryonics.)

Comment author: Morendil 04 September 2011 07:28:48PM *  1 point [-]

If you really found tags all that valuable, you could start doing them inside comments.

Preliminary report: this isn't going to work, not without drastic contortions in the choice of tags (which IMO kills the effectiveness of the tactic). For instance, from my first set of 30 I tagged a number with the tag "personal", predictions which only concern one user (or two acquainted with each other) and that I don't want to see because I can't effectively assess them. The Google query including "personal" returns close to 30 spurious results: for instance those containing "personal computer" or "personal transportation". (A temporary workaround is to include the term "tags" in the query, but this will cease to work once a greater fraction of predictions have been tagged.)

I doubt you will adopt my suggestion

You are correct about the likely outcome, but I think I've just proven your model of the underlying reasons wrong: I won't do it because it won't work, not because I lack the conscientiousness to do so, or because I'm too selfish to take on an effort that will benefit all users.

Comment author: gwern 04 September 2011 08:05:32PM 0 points [-]

The Google query including "personal" returns close to 30 spurious results: for instance those containing "personal computer" or "personal transportation".

JoshuaZ has (example) been adding brackets to the tags, such as [economics]. You don't mention forcing Google to include the brackets, so it's not surprising it includes those extra results.

Comment author: Douglas_Knight 04 September 2011 11:21:48PM 2 points [-]

I don't think google respects punctuation. It's a common complaint.

Comment author: gwern 04 September 2011 11:39:36PM 1 point [-]

Hm, you're right. I did some searches on this, and apparently brackets are one of the special characters specifically excluded by Google (along with spam-licious '@' and others). How unfortunate.