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Morendil comments on [LINK] Get paid to train your rationality - Less Wrong
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I did all my predictions last night immediately after the email showed up, so that meant I got to place a lot of bets at 50/50 odds :)
(Then I recorded everything privately in PredictionBook. No point in leaving my predictions trapped on their site.)
Interface-wise, I don't like it at all. I'm still not sure what exactly I am betting at or with, compared to PB with straight probabilities or Intrade with share prices.
Have you entered any comments on your predictions at the GJ site? (You're supposed to enter a minimum number of comments over one year, and also a minimum number of responses to others' comments. My understanding is that this will in time be run as a team game, with team play conventions.)
From my first experiences, I'm assuming the scoring will be pretty much as with PB.com - based on probability. Their model seems to be calibration/resolution rather than the visual "slope" representation.
Comments? I don't see any relevant fields for that, checking right now, nor does my 'About' include the substring "comment". Another experimental difference, I guess...
The "Why did you answer the way you did" field. I've been assuming we're both using the same underlying app, i.e. Crowdcast. But perhaps we're not...