JoshuaZ comments on [LINK] Get paid to train your rationality - Less Wrong

27 Post author: XFrequentist 03 August 2011 03:01PM

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Comment author: JoshuaZ 02 November 2011 06:32:13PM 1 point [-]

poor participation is leading to poor forecasting scores.

Hmm, correlation v. causation maybe? It is possible that some people were doing poorly and so started participating less?

Comment author: Morendil 02 November 2011 06:54:45PM 1 point [-]

Yes, it's possible too. I used "causing" referring to a direct link: some predictions are of the form "event X will happen before date D", and you lose points if you fail to revise your estimates as D draws nearer.

Apparently many people weren't aware of this aspect - they took a "fire and forget" approach to prediction. (That is in itself an interesting lesson.) That was before the leaderboard was set up.