JoshuaZ comments on [LINK] Get paid to train your rationality - Less Wrong
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Hmm, correlation v. causation maybe? It is possible that some people were doing poorly and so started participating less?
Yes, it's possible too. I used "causing" referring to a direct link: some predictions are of the form "event X will happen before date D", and you lose points if you fail to revise your estimates as D draws nearer.
Apparently many people weren't aware of this aspect - they took a "fire and forget" approach to prediction. (That is in itself an interesting lesson.) That was before the leaderboard was set up.