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Nick_Tarleton comments on Kinnaird's truels - Less Wrong
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Also, creating low expectations and exceeding them very likely creates a better impression than the same level of performance accurately expected.
But Nick, wouldn't it be a mistake for me to prefer a person who exceeded my low expectations, over a person who met my high expectations, if their performance levels were equal? Wouldn't I be more rational to update my opinion of the low-expectations person in the direction of higher ability, but not as high as the person who met my expectations? Since it's possible the low-expectations person did as well as he did just due to luck, I should not update my opinion all the way to his recent performance level. And so he should still be lower than the other guy.
Which means, that to the extent that Nick's observation is correct, we have another puzzle to explain.