Tetronian comments on Why are certain trends so precisely exponential? - Less Wrong

16 Post author: orthonormal 06 August 2011 05:38PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (30)

You are viewing a single comment's thread.

Comment author: [deleted] 06 August 2011 05:45:21PM 14 points [-]

I don't have an answer to your question, but I do have a concern: beware of positive bias. Don't just look for positive examples--how many trends are not precisely exponential? I'm pretty sure the answer is "a lot." (I know it sounds basic, but it bears repeating.)

Comment author: CarlShulman 06 August 2011 10:24:14PM 10 points [-]

In the last 5 years serial speed gains in computers fell off, while genomics took off. Both changes were quite abrupt.

Comment author: Pavitra 06 August 2011 09:40:30PM 2 points [-]

More crucially, how many trends almost, but not quite look precisely exponential? Are precisely-exponential trends the tip of a long tail, or an additional local mode?

Comment author: minderbinder 07 August 2011 05:50:32AM *  1 point [-]

The logistic curve, for example, is extremely similar to the exponential curve for small values seeing as the latter is y' = ky and the former is y' = ky(1-y). That got Malthus with his whole doomsday arguments about population growth outstripping resources (at least for the time being).