sdenheyer comments on Rationality and Relationships - Less Wrong
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If someone wanted lifetime monogamy, and they got married at a somewhat young age to their first serious romantic partner, and they and their partner were very happy with the relationship for several years, up to and including the present day, what would you expect about this person regarding their relationship skills? Would you guess that they just lucked out, or that they are good at partner selection, or that they are good at relationship maintenance, or all/some/none of those?
If the person attributes their relationship success to very good partner selection skills, would you find that believable?
I am such a person*. I feel very lucky, but we've put a lot of thought and effort into our relationship. So a little from column A, and little from column C.
On partner selection, I think Dan Savage nailed it, on finding "the one": "There ain't no one. There's a .67 or a .64 that you round up to one" (Although I think those are conservative numbers - shoot for a .8). More here.
My parents were also such people, and my wife's parents have been married for a long time. I suspect, as children, we internalize relationship heuristics from our parents, but I doubt there's anything unlearnable. Although, if these conjectures are true, and both partners are children of failed relationships, it might make it hard to navigate challanges.
Also, I think GabrielDuquette is on to something with "anti-fragile" in his post below.
* - Qualifiers: depends what you mean by "young" and "serious". Also, we lived together/common-law for 5 years before we were "married."
<Edit: Typo & accuracy>
Oh, definitely, partner selection is not about finding "the one". I do have to say, though, that Dan Savage's outlook is much more "settley" than mine. I also think the .67 is way low, and I can't relate to what he says about "relationships built on lies" in that video.
Since you bring it up, my parents have a terrible marriage (though they are still together) and my husband's parents are divorced. His brother also divorced shortly after marrying. My brother had a shotgun wedding and then came close to divorce, but his marriage seems to be ok for now.
Ya, "lies and deceit" seem a bit hyperbolic.
FWIW, our siblings' success/failure ratio is 3/4 - I have one sibling who is having a little trouble. He was in an otherwise good relationship, but they had mismatched long-term goals, and couldn't find a compromise. There's a lot of variables that have to come together, and I think that's where luck comes in...