peter_hurford comments on Magic Tricks Revealed: Test Your Rationality - Less Wrong
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Comments (29)
That's what I would describe as someone not considering a hypothesis, and then later starting considering it. That is not what I would describe as someone subconsciously considering a hypothesis the entire time, at least without further justification.
Remember that not considering a hypothesis is not the same as saying the hypothesis has a low probability. Saying the hypothesis has a low probability is considering it and then discarding it. I think we're talking about two different things.
That reminds me of what Scott Adam's called The Two-Bucket Mind.