Patrick comments on Take heed, for it is a trap - Less Wrong

47 Post author: Zed 14 August 2011 10:23AM

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Comment author: Patrick 14 August 2011 03:34:24PM 0 points [-]

The number of possible probability distributions is far larger than the two induced by the belief that P, and the belief that ~P.

Comment author: Zed 14 August 2011 04:32:43PM 0 points [-]

If at this point you don't agree that the probability is 0.5 I'd like to hear your number.

Comment author: Patrick 14 August 2011 05:34:55PM 3 points [-]

P(A) = 2^-K(A).

As for ~A, see: http://lesswrong.com/lw/vs/selling_nonapples/ (The negation of a complex proposition is much vaguer, and hence more probable (and useless))

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