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Patrick comments on Take heed, for it is a trap - Less Wrong
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A complex proposition P (long MML) can have a complex negation (also with long MML) and you'd have no reason to assume you'd be presented with P instead of non-P. The positive proposition P is unlikely if its MML is long, but the proposition non-P, despite its long MML is then likely to be true.
If you have no reason to believe you're more likely to be presented with P than with non-P, then my understanding is that they cancel each other out.
But now I'm not so sure anymore.
edit: I'm now pretty sure again my initial understanding was correct and that the counterarguments are merely cached thoughts.
The number of possible probability distributions is far larger than the two induced by the belief that P, and the belief that ~P.
If at this point you don't agree that the probability is 0.5 I'd like to hear your number.
P(A) = 2^-K(A).
As for ~A, see: http://lesswrong.com/lw/vs/selling_nonapples/ (The negation of a complex proposition is much vaguer, and hence more probable (and useless))