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gwern comments on Take heed, for it is a trap - Less Wrong
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I still don't think you're saying something sophisticated and true. I think you're saying something sophisticated and nonsensical. I think it's meaningless to assign a probability to the assertion "understand up without any clams" because you can't say what configurations of the universe would make it true or false, nor interpret it as a question about the logical validity of an implication. Assigning probabilities to A, B, C as in your linked writing strikes me as equally nonsensical. The part where you end up with a probability of 25% after doing an elaborate calculation based on having no idea what your symbols are talking about is not a feature, it is a bug. To convince me otherwise, explain how an AI that assigns probabilities to arbitrary labels about which it knows nothing will function in a superior fashion to an AI that only assigns probabilities to things for which it has nonzero notion of its truth condition.
"If you know nothing, 50% prior probability" still strikes me as just plain wrong.
That strikes me as even weirder and wrong. So given a variable A which could be every possible variable, I should assign it... 75% and ~A 25%? or 25%, and make ~A 75%? Or what? - Isn't 50% the only symmetrical answer?
Basically, given a single variable and its negation, isn't 1/2 the max-entropy distribution, just as a collection of n variables has 1/n as the max-ent answer for them?